SPATIO-TEMPORAL TRENDS, CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE-INDUCED MIGRATION IN OBI AND DOMA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS OF NASARAWA STATE, NIGERIA, 2015-2024

Abstract

The study examined the dynamics; (trends, causes and effects) of conflict-induced migration in the selected Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Obi and Doma of Nasarawa State. Environmental determinism theory provided the theoretical frameworks. Research survey design was applied while purposive sampling technique was adopted to select the study area based on the status rural-urban status of the two LGAs. Stratified sampling method was used to select the sampled population. Quantitative method of data collection was adopted via the administration questionnaire; 60 and 90 respondents were systematically sampled in Obi and Doma LGAs, respectively, totalling 150. Qualitative methods of a one-time focus group discussions (FGDs) session, involving eight (8) randomly selected volunteered residents, comprising five (5) males and three (3) females and in-depth interviews (IDIs) were conducted with an elderly stakeholder in each of the two LGAs. Quantitative data were analysed and presented in frequences, percentages, charts, chi-squares and Pearsons’ Correlation while the qualitative data were transcribed and content analysed. Migration dynamics showed that majority of the respondents had their household members migrated due to climate change conflict-induced migration, the flow and direction were majorly towards the North and destination, Lafia. Reverse out-migration was reported scanty and reason for returning was mainly, ‘improved security.’ Drought (80.0%) and overgrazing (33.3%) were reported as causative factors of climate change conflict-induced migration. Household income (75.0%), livelihood sustainability (40.9%), agricultural workforce (53.3%) and farms and properties (90.0%) were affirmed as the consequential effects of climate change conflict-induced migration. Temporary migration (92.0%) and government policy (83.3%) were agreed as coping mechanisms for climate change conflict-induced migration. It was therefore, recommended that government should provide mitigation and coping strategies to cushion the devastating effects of climate change while adequate security should be provided to avoid farmer-herder conflict in the study area.